Historians will, I predict, regard the current situation as the American Civil War II.
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@heidilifeldman Civil war now? I don't think so, not by a long shot. Whether there will be a civil war will depend on whether the midterm elections in November are banned or delayed (very likely).
Everything will depend on whether Trump is allowed to continue with absolute power without the Senate (including Republicans) doing anything.
If you are referring to it as one of the events that led to a civil war, then yes, it is possible to understand it that way.
@Ulmo @heidilifeldman I highly doubt elections will be canceled. Most authoritarian regimes still hold them, to make themselves look more legitimate, but engage in major suppression of voters and/or candidates to force the result they want. We've certainly seen that in our own country's history (like before the 1965 Voting Rights Act, now in the process of being dismantled).
I worry that a lot of folks are thinking "well, elections haven't been canceled, so it can't be too bad". Yes it can be.
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Whichever side prevails, a new constitutional settlement will be required. Implementing that settlement will involve reconstruction, as was attempted after American Civil War I and, in Europe and Japan after WW II. It may or may not require or involve explicit constitutional amendments. 5/
@heidilifeldman
Some Germans say that the democracy the US ‘gave’ Germany after WWII was the one the US really wanted for itself. There are many interesting innovations in the German model which similarly has a state-federal structure. Australia (my country) also has that structure & some voting innovations that have stood the test of time and are still evolving. Doubtless many other models worldwide can contribute to Democracy Mk II to make the US a better country, ally, partner.
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@msbellows here's the unrolled thread: https://mastoreader.io?url=https%3A%2F%2Fc.im%2F%40msbellows%2F115918886297001706
Next time, kindly set the visibility to 'Mentioned people only' and mention only me (@mastoreaderio). This ensures we avoid spamming others' timelines and threads unless you intend for others to see the unrolled thread link as well.
Thank you!
#TIL that @mastoreaderio exists and how to use it
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@heidilifeldman Josh Marshall’s list is somewhat more inclusive: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-status-interview-or-how-to-write-up-a-senate-purge-list
Here are some other actions a post-Trump reconstruction government might consider:
- force breakup of media monopolies
- denazify public bodies at all levels of government
- double or triple the size of the House of Representatives
- eliminate or reform the SenateEstablish an essential living threshold.
Transparent threshold – $761 k is derived directly from the average grocery‑share of disposable income for the bottom 99 % of households.
Targeted surcharge – A 90 % marginal tax applies only to income above that level, isolating the ultra‑wealthy while preserving the existing progressive brackets for virtually everyone else.
Minimal administrative change – Updating the statutory threshold and @heidilifeldman
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Establish an essential living threshold.
Transparent threshold – $761 k is derived directly from the average grocery‑share of disposable income for the bottom 99 % of households.
Targeted surcharge – A 90 % marginal tax applies only to income above that level, isolating the ultra‑wealthy while preserving the existing progressive brackets for virtually everyone else.
Minimal administrative change – Updating the statutory threshold and @heidilifeldman
the supplemental filing form is all that’s required; the compliance architecture (automated detection, anti‑avoidance rules, voluntary‑disclosure incentives, and the public‑good credit) stays the same.
Substantial revenue potential – Even with conservative assumptions, the design could generate over $1 trillion annually, providing a powerful fiscal lever without reshaping the broader tax system.
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@heidilifeldman it seems to me that the civil war is fed vs states and for the states to prevail it means ending the federal experiment. At least temporarily to implement the necessary purge of laws and personnel. A “de-baathification” of DC. A “de-magafication” I suppose.
In the interim the states will need to replace services and use captured federal income tax dollars.
Which states?
Red states have had regimes by the bullies for the billionaires for decades, silencing non White Christian voters, rigging the rules, enforcing the law selectively, defunding infrastructure, social services, schools...
They need to be reconstructed too, it isn't just DC. -
@heidilifeldman
Am still waiting for something i fear will never come:
The army remembers their oath to the constitution(!) and refuses to follow unlawful orders. -
@Ulmo @heidilifeldman I highly doubt elections will be canceled. Most authoritarian regimes still hold them, to make themselves look more legitimate, but engage in major suppression of voters and/or candidates to force the result they want. We've certainly seen that in our own country's history (like before the 1965 Voting Rights Act, now in the process of being dismantled).
I worry that a lot of folks are thinking "well, elections haven't been canceled, so it can't be too bad". Yes it can be.
@JMarkOckerbloom @Ulmo @heidilifeldman that does seem like the endgame of the nonsensical fear mongering about non-citizens voting plus "mail-in ballot fraud" plus ICE targeting community gathering places - make non-white people afraid to show up at the polls and unable to vote without showing up at the polls.
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If you are on the side of American Democracy in the currently unfolding American Civil War II and elections are held, vote for candidates that understand the war and what will required if our side prevails. 10/10
@heidilifeldman Pretty clear the current leadership of the Democratic Party understands neither
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Historians will, I predict, regard the current situation as the American Civil War II. Certainly we are in a civil war, instigated by the federal government, when it began sending unnecessary and militarized forces into American cities. (See pinned post.) 1/
@heidilifeldman agreed. White power slogans and symbols are now openly used by the government. I think they plan a complete power grab
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@heidilifeldman
Some Germans say that the democracy the US ‘gave’ Germany after WWII was the one the US really wanted for itself. There are many interesting innovations in the German model which similarly has a state-federal structure. Australia (my country) also has that structure & some voting innovations that have stood the test of time and are still evolving. Doubtless many other models worldwide can contribute to Democracy Mk II to make the US a better country, ally, partner.Pretty remarkable that in so many ways the post-war German and Japanese constitutions have worked better than the U.S. Constitution. 14th Amendment should have prevented Trump from having a second term but it failed. Impeachment is so unworkable that it presents no deterrent to the worst actions of a president. The Constitution will definitely require some attention if any in the world are to regain trust in the U.S.
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Historians will, I predict, regard the current situation as the American Civil War II. Certainly we are in a civil war, instigated by the federal government, when it began sending unnecessary and militarized forces into American cities. (See pinned post.) 1/
@heidilifeldman Having just watched the Ken Burns "American Revolution" series, I'm inclined to think of the current times more in that frame than the 1861 War for Slavery.
1776 was time to make the Declaration, and then invent a new government, and social contract. And it was complicated. -
@msbellows @heidilifeldman @mastoreaderio
Ranked choice to end the 2-party, same equity extortion coin to choose from every election.
Roll back Citizens United and limit contributions to an honest day's pay.
@cmthiede I keep running scenarios through my head that make ranked choice voting terribly unclear.
Let's say we have five candidates. C1 and C2 get 33% first round votes. C3, C4, and C5 all get 11%. Now in Round 2, C4 got 40%, but C3-5 were eliminated, yet round 1 and 2 give C4 a majority. But some of those votes come from C1 and C2.
I don't see how it works. I'm consistently confused by the logic.
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#TIL that @mastoreaderio exists and how to use it
@coffee2Di4 @mastoreaderio I'm glad! Ain't it useful?
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@cmthiede I keep running scenarios through my head that make ranked choice voting terribly unclear.
Let's say we have five candidates. C1 and C2 get 33% first round votes. C3, C4, and C5 all get 11%. Now in Round 2, C4 got 40%, but C3-5 were eliminated, yet round 1 and 2 give C4 a majority. But some of those votes come from C1 and C2.
I don't see how it works. I'm consistently confused by the logic.
@RegGuy @msbellows @heidilifeldman @mastoreaderio I don't know that anyone has settled on the logic beyond the name sounding catchier than explaining a runoff election midsummer to crank things up a notch. If it gets rid of the Nader Effect, I don't care what it's called. I'd be happy if both sides had a serious discussion about it out loud so everyone can hear.
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@cmthiede I keep running scenarios through my head that make ranked choice voting terribly unclear.
Let's say we have five candidates. C1 and C2 get 33% first round votes. C3, C4, and C5 all get 11%. Now in Round 2, C4 got 40%, but C3-5 were eliminated, yet round 1 and 2 give C4 a majority. But some of those votes come from C1 and C2.
I don't see how it works. I'm consistently confused by the logic.
@RegGuy I'm interested in RCV.
But I don't think it's one weird trick to save democracy... -
Democracy was never meant to be done by election. Athenians knew it would captured by oligarchs. It was meant to be by sortition.
I modified this idea & how it could be structured & why. What I envision is completely different to what we have now. It’s a different democratic model, using a version of sortition. What I envision is practical & develops interdependence, understanding, experience, skills, while solving real problems.
https://mastodon.social/@JoBlakely/110531598480099232@JoBlakely @heidilifeldman I just received a notice for jury duty. We accept the judgement of somewhat randomly chosen candidates for a jury so I can see sortition as a more democratic method than elections.
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@cmthiede I keep running scenarios through my head that make ranked choice voting terribly unclear.
Let's say we have five candidates. C1 and C2 get 33% first round votes. C3, C4, and C5 all get 11%. Now in Round 2, C4 got 40%, but C3-5 were eliminated, yet round 1 and 2 give C4 a majority. But some of those votes come from C1 and C2.
I don't see how it works. I'm consistently confused by the logic.
@RegGuy @cmthiede @msbellows @heidilifeldman @mastoreaderio Just think of it one vote at a time. Your vote says "I prefer C1, but if she gets eliminated I'll vote for C2 instead."
Your vote says exactly what you would do if there were a series of run-off elections.
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@cmthiede I keep running scenarios through my head that make ranked choice voting terribly unclear.
Let's say we have five candidates. C1 and C2 get 33% first round votes. C3, C4, and C5 all get 11%. Now in Round 2, C4 got 40%, but C3-5 were eliminated, yet round 1 and 2 give C4 a majority. But some of those votes come from C1 and C2.
I don't see how it works. I'm consistently confused by the logic.
@RegGuy @cmthiede @msbellows @heidilifeldman @mastoreaderio I don't understand this: "...yet round 1 and 2 give C4 a majority." It sounds like you want to put the two rounds together, but they are separate.
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@cmthiede I keep running scenarios through my head that make ranked choice voting terribly unclear.
Let's say we have five candidates. C1 and C2 get 33% first round votes. C3, C4, and C5 all get 11%. Now in Round 2, C4 got 40%, but C3-5 were eliminated, yet round 1 and 2 give C4 a majority. But some of those votes come from C1 and C2.
I don't see how it works. I'm consistently confused by the logic.
@RegGuy @cmthiede @msbellows @heidilifeldman @mastoreaderio only one candidate gets eliminated at a time. So in your example assuming c3 c4 c5 weren't exactly the same let's say 11.3% 11.4% 11.5% so c3 gets eliminated. His 11.3% is allocated however the voters wanted. Some to each of c1, c2, c4 and c5. Then repeat for new lowest ranked.
Not sure what would happen in a draw where two lowest candidates have exactly same number. I'm sure it's covered in the Australian system. Possibly a coin toss. But very unlikely to have exactly the same number of votes.
I hope
