From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
Into the unknown both hope and fear reside.
As a 3rd generation American, LGBTQ, person of color living in the very rural part of the likely bluest state, I don't experience the US as on the precipice of Civil War. However, I am not so sanguine that we won't end up there, anything is possible.
The US is a massive nation. I grew up on the farthest West state, Hawai'i, the newest state in the Union, and now live in one of the original and oldest states - Massachusetts. There are MAGA here, but they are outnumbered. Massachusetts is very blue. But because we are so geographically isolated, to survive, our local culture is a balance of self-sufficiency and interdependence both Blue and Red. Armed conflict would be an irrevocable breach of rural local identity. And because we are rural, lots of folks hunt and have guns, even Democrats. So if this devolves into armed conflict rural Blue New England won't go without a fight.
There are lots of serial flashpoints, and those get media, which is what you see overseas. But know this is Trump's standard - one flashpoint at a time, so far. Trump does not appear to have the troops, organization, discipline or ability to manage a national civil war. And no other fascist ambitious current MAGA leader has the engendered cult loyalty and charisma to trigger and win a Civil War.
I actually believe the opposite about Trump's power - I believe he peaked on July 4 2025 with his substantial budget bill destruction of significant parts of the US (w Congressional MAGA complicity) and his greatest win has actually triggered his downhill slide and he's is angry, desperate, in denial, fuminating and at his most chaotic dangerous recklessness as he tries to erase the inevitable fate that he is seeing awaits him. But time, gravity, and history are now his inescapable enemies. He will get worse, and his minions worsen, but he's no longer inevitable. You can see it in the those polls on his cratering popularity, and on the MAGA who are abandoning their Congressional seats. Corporate media here and over there are both trailing, not leading, indicators. They missed the trends that brought Trump to power, they are missing the trends that signal his end.
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Into the unknown both hope and fear reside.
As a 3rd generation American, LGBTQ, person of color living in the very rural part of the likely bluest state, I don't experience the US as on the precipice of Civil War. However, I am not so sanguine that we won't end up there, anything is possible.
The US is a massive nation. I grew up on the farthest West state, Hawai'i, the newest state in the Union, and now live in one of the original and oldest states - Massachusetts. There are MAGA here, but they are outnumbered. Massachusetts is very blue. But because we are so geographically isolated, to survive, our local culture is a balance of self-sufficiency and interdependence both Blue and Red. Armed conflict would be an irrevocable breach of rural local identity. And because we are rural, lots of folks hunt and have guns, even Democrats. So if this devolves into armed conflict rural Blue New England won't go without a fight.
There are lots of serial flashpoints, and those get media, which is what you see overseas. But know this is Trump's standard - one flashpoint at a time, so far. Trump does not appear to have the troops, organization, discipline or ability to manage a national civil war. And no other fascist ambitious current MAGA leader has the engendered cult loyalty and charisma to trigger and win a Civil War.
I actually believe the opposite about Trump's power - I believe he peaked on July 4 2025 with his substantial budget bill destruction of significant parts of the US (w Congressional MAGA complicity) and his greatest win has actually triggered his downhill slide and he's is angry, desperate, in denial, fuminating and at his most chaotic dangerous recklessness as he tries to erase the inevitable fate that he is seeing awaits him. But time, gravity, and history are now his inescapable enemies. He will get worse, and his minions worsen, but he's no longer inevitable. You can see it in the those polls on his cratering popularity, and on the MAGA who are abandoning their Congressional seats. Corporate media here and over there are both trailing, not leading, indicators. They missed the trends that brought Trump to power, they are missing the trends that signal his end.
@pattykimura
Compelling case you make, glad I read it.
@ChrisMayLA6 -
From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
@ChrisMayLA6
I was thinking the same, but I think that citizen activism is going to push the fash down and Trump cannot do all he wants if his minions are scared.We shall overcome!
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@2legged
SCOTUS ruled that he can basically do whatever he wants as long as he is doing it within the scope of what he "believes" he is his job.But more importantly, Chump controls DOJ and DOD which Congress has to use to enforce their impeachment as their only other enforcement arm is the Sergeant At Arms
@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6
@nikatjef So you can't identify any specific judgment, and you offer zero evidence that the courts would ignore a conviction at impeachment.
I get why you are v worried, but if you want to make a serious contribution to a discussion about the actions of a court, that needs identifiable rulings.
@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6
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I'm interested in the idea of self-correction - from here it looks like the forces with & behind Trump are seeking to ensure such a self-correction is not possible.... are you saying that is a misapprehension?
@ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps personally (again, UK so this might look different locally), I've watched this building for decades. Bush v Gore. Gerrymandering and voter discouragement. Education decisions in red states. Militarisation of the police. Everything Mitch McConnell ever touched. Citizens United.
Self-correcting will take a heck of a lot more than voting in a Democrat (otherwise Biden would have been enough). It will take decades of work and electeds willing to make radical change. -
@ChrisMayLA6 since he came to power this time I have been sure that by the end of his term they would be at war and he would pause the elections until it was "resolved".
"I'm just doing what Ukraine did and you all supported that .. "@Mattrog Ah, but is that in the U.S. Constitu...never mind. @ChrisMayLA6
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
It is both. The media is complicit. Trump needs to go.
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@ChrisMayLA6 since he came to power this time I have been sure that by the end of his term they would be at war and he would pause the elections until it was "resolved".
"I'm just doing what Ukraine did and you all supported that .. "@Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6 the difference is the constitution of Ukraine prohibits the operation of elections under martial law (war)
Whereas the US Constitution prohibits the cancellation of elections under any circumstances. -
@nikatjef So you can't identify any specific judgment, and you offer zero evidence that the courts would ignore a conviction at impeachment.
I get why you are v worried, but if you want to make a serious contribution to a discussion about the actions of a court, that needs identifiable rulings.
@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6
@2legged
I am referring to the Trump vs United States from 2024. Here is a discussion about it;
https://www.scu.edu/government-ethics/resources/trump-v-united-states-and-the-ethics-of-presidential-immunity@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6
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I'm interested in the idea of self-correction - from here it looks like the forces with & behind Trump are seeking to ensure such a self-correction is not possible.... are you saying that is a misapprehension?
@ChrisMayLA6 The threats are real and the risks are high, but Trump is krazy. Wall St. has done well with tax cuts, but the (theoretical) interest rate caps, corporate profit caps, corporate pay caps, general uncertainty, geopolitical uncertainty, and increasing toxicity of Trump and MAGA politics mean the backlash is going to be spectacular (just from the powers that be). Protests and violence can be magnified or diminished at will by corporate media. Trump's coalition is diffuse and thinning.
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@nikatjef So you can't identify any specific judgment, and you offer zero evidence that the courts would ignore a conviction at impeachment.
I get why you are v worried, but if you want to make a serious contribution to a discussion about the actions of a court, that needs identifiable rulings.
@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6
@2legged
Please note that I never said the courts would ignore the conviction, only that the corrupt SCOTUS granted the president extreme authority, but the court lacks the ability to enforce their decisions and Chump has demonstrated multiple times that he will simply ignore the courts, laws, and even the constitution of the US as he chooses.@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
@ChrisMayLA6 i think @AnarchoNinaWrites was right, it wont be a civil war as that implies branches of civil government in armed struggle. More than likely it'll be some form of militarised crackdown with an insurgency resisting.
Realistically that detail is by-the-by, the angling is clear for the insurrection act, and some form of armed crackdown on civil liberties will likely follow. Perhaps a war in greenland to keep powerful members of the armed forces busy while this is ongoing, with a view to the trump dynasty fleeing to Qatar in the event things look dire.
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
@ChrisMayLA6 I'll tell you the same thing I've been telling a bunch of right wing neighbors for the past 3-5 years: no, I don't think we're facing an inevitable civil war. They're fewer now, but I still possible off-ramps.
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
@ChrisMayLA6 If the US media is doing anything, it's downplaying such events, and Trump has telegraphed that he covets the Insurrection Act as much as he covets a Nobel Peace Prize. The younger protesting set has no direct memory of the Lunch Counter Protests that launched the Civil Rights actions of the 50s and 60s, but the advice they're getting from their elders was indeed successfully implemented back then--Never strike back, but firmly hold your ground no matter what brickbats are thrown your way. One bit of payback coming from you results in an excuse for them.
This was true back then and it remains true today.
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@2legged
I am referring to the Trump vs United States from 2024. Here is a discussion about it;
https://www.scu.edu/government-ethics/resources/trump-v-united-states-and-the-ethics-of-presidential-immunity@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6
@nikatjef The article at https://www.scu.edu/government-ethics/resources/trump-v-united-states-and-the-ethics-of-presidential-immunity/ doesnt mention the word impeach. Not even once.
@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6
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@ChrisMayLA6 I read a piece some time ago saying that the second US civil war won't be armies and set-piece battles, it will be more like the Troubles in Northern Ireland, and the Irish independence fight before that: death squads at midnight, car bombs, kneecapping. Things are developing right along that trajectory at the moment. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Sorry.
@tokensane @ChrisMayLA6 Definitely not pitched battles.
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@ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps I think we will be very fortunate if there are elections this year, and too many people are still clinging to that as of things are normal
@Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps People say 'Trump can't cancel elections, it's against the law', forgetting that Trump is a terrorist, who doesn't care about the law. He'll cheat as much as anyone has ever cheated before, even if it means staging another bloody-coup.
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@Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6
This is the truth. People have to stop pretending, and to realize that between nations, there can only be force or the threat of force.
Should they so choose, there can of course be cooperation, but at the end of the day, there is a reason we call them sovereign nations.
Become a political realist, and gain the benefit of not being particularly surprised at how Trump is acting or what he is doing.
Add to that, the realization that he is a business man, and you will no longer be surprised by anything he does, and you will easily be able to predict what he will do.
@h4890 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog
One of the reasons Political Realism in International Relations (the discipline) remains attractive is exactly this issue; in the end there is always power politics... but the reasons other approaches also gained ground & continue to appeal, is that Realism is a very thin description of what actually happens from day to day in the global sphere - the most compelling approaches combine both views
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Into the unknown both hope and fear reside.
As a 3rd generation American, LGBTQ, person of color living in the very rural part of the likely bluest state, I don't experience the US as on the precipice of Civil War. However, I am not so sanguine that we won't end up there, anything is possible.
The US is a massive nation. I grew up on the farthest West state, Hawai'i, the newest state in the Union, and now live in one of the original and oldest states - Massachusetts. There are MAGA here, but they are outnumbered. Massachusetts is very blue. But because we are so geographically isolated, to survive, our local culture is a balance of self-sufficiency and interdependence both Blue and Red. Armed conflict would be an irrevocable breach of rural local identity. And because we are rural, lots of folks hunt and have guns, even Democrats. So if this devolves into armed conflict rural Blue New England won't go without a fight.
There are lots of serial flashpoints, and those get media, which is what you see overseas. But know this is Trump's standard - one flashpoint at a time, so far. Trump does not appear to have the troops, organization, discipline or ability to manage a national civil war. And no other fascist ambitious current MAGA leader has the engendered cult loyalty and charisma to trigger and win a Civil War.
I actually believe the opposite about Trump's power - I believe he peaked on July 4 2025 with his substantial budget bill destruction of significant parts of the US (w Congressional MAGA complicity) and his greatest win has actually triggered his downhill slide and he's is angry, desperate, in denial, fuminating and at his most chaotic dangerous recklessness as he tries to erase the inevitable fate that he is seeing awaits him. But time, gravity, and history are now his inescapable enemies. He will get worse, and his minions worsen, but he's no longer inevitable. You can see it in the those polls on his cratering popularity, and on the MAGA who are abandoning their Congressional seats. Corporate media here and over there are both trailing, not leading, indicators. They missed the trends that brought Trump to power, they are missing the trends that signal his end.
@pattykimura @ChrisMayLA6 I truly hope you're right, not just for your people but for world peace because one man, voted in by the stupid crayon eaters is undoing work that took years to do. The USA is a laughing stock around the world because of him and his MAGA hard of thinking cronies.
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
@ChrisMayLA6 Not on the other side, but it seems clear to me that this follows the "revolutionary" playbook of forcing crises in order to justify violent responses. In a country with millions of guns, this can only go badly.
