From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.

2legged@mastodon.ie

@nikatjef With respect, I think that you are missing my point that both SCOTUS and Congress are failing to restrain Trump.

Despite the corrupt #SCOTUS, Congress is not neutered. Congress still retains huge power to tighten law, and ultimately to impeach. Trump's authoritarianism could be stopped by either Congress or SCOTUS.

@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6

nikatjef@mastodon.acm.org

@2legged
No, I get that and agree, but they (Congress and Judicial) no longer have any tools to stop him, even if they wanted to.

Impeachment only works if he and his cabinet respect the impeachment, which SCOTUS has ruled he doesn't have to do.

Judicial branch can only enforce their rulings if he and his cabinet lets the DOJ do enforce them.

Congress could impeach him tomorrow, he would rant and rail, but otherwise ignore it

@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6

lackthereof@beige.party

@ChrisMayLA6

Yes and no.

The regime has threatened large scale violence and military rule many times before, but this is a regime that talks big. Militarization of civilian federal law enforcement services will escalate, but I do not see armed conflict between federal and state power in our near future.

For it to happen, the US state governments will have to, at some point, put their money where their mouth is with regards to resistance. For now they've been content to wage a war of words and court papers.

When the regime's puppet Republican supreme court finally issues a ruling that enables full federal military rule over the country, only then will we know if our opposition/state level leaders have the stones to defy it with force.

Otherwise it's just waiting for them to try and overturn another election.

2legged@mastodon.ie

@nikatjef What have I missed? Which SCOTUS ruling(s) have removed or restricted the power of Congress to impeach and remove from office?

@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6

h4890@alive.bar

@Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6

This is the truth. People have to stop pretending, and to realize that between nations, there can only be force or the threat of force.

Should they so choose, there can of course be cooperation, but at the end of the day, there is a reason we call them sovereign nations.

Become a political realist, and gain the benefit of not being particularly surprised at how Trump is acting or what he is doing.

Add to that, the realization that he is a business man, and you will no longer be surprised by anything he does, and you will easily be able to predict what he will do.

lackthereof@beige.party

@ChrisMayLA6

There are a few triggers sitting on the mantelpiece right now, and most of them pivot around the regime refusing to seat a state's duly elected representatives.

A military revolt against illegal orders / domestic deployments would be interesting too, but we don't have a good model for that in living history in the US. Vietnam-era fragging is something only remembered by a generation who are well removed from the current volunteer force.

nikatjef@mastodon.acm.org

@2legged
SCOTUS ruled that he can basically do whatever he wants as long as he is doing it within the scope of what he "believes" he is his job.

But more importantly, Chump controls DOJ and DOD which Congress has to use to enforce their impeachment as their only other enforcement arm is the Sergeant At Arms

@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6

pattykimura@beige.party

@ChrisMayLA6

Into the unknown both hope and fear reside.

As a 3rd generation American, LGBTQ, person of color living in the very rural part of the likely bluest state, I don't experience the US as on the precipice of Civil War. However, I am not so sanguine that we won't end up there, anything is possible.

The US is a massive nation. I grew up on the farthest West state, Hawai'i, the newest state in the Union, and now live in one of the original and oldest states - Massachusetts. There are MAGA here, but they are outnumbered. Massachusetts is very blue. But because we are so geographically isolated, to survive, our local culture is a balance of self-sufficiency and interdependence both Blue and Red. Armed conflict would be an irrevocable breach of rural local identity. And because we are rural, lots of folks hunt and have guns, even Democrats. So if this devolves into armed conflict rural Blue New England won't go without a fight.

There are lots of serial flashpoints, and those get media, which is what you see overseas. But know this is Trump's standard - one flashpoint at a time, so far. Trump does not appear to have the troops, organization, discipline or ability to manage a national civil war. And no other fascist ambitious current MAGA leader has the engendered cult loyalty and charisma to trigger and win a Civil War.

I actually believe the opposite about Trump's power - I believe he peaked on July 4 2025 with his substantial budget bill destruction of significant parts of the US (w Congressional MAGA complicity) and his greatest win has actually triggered his downhill slide and he's is angry, desperate, in denial, fuminating and at his most chaotic dangerous recklessness as he tries to erase the inevitable fate that he is seeing awaits him. But time, gravity, and history are now his inescapable enemies. He will get worse, and his minions worsen, but he's no longer inevitable. You can see it in the those polls on his cratering popularity, and on the MAGA who are abandoning their Congressional seats. Corporate media here and over there are both trailing, not leading, indicators. They missed the trends that brought Trump to power, they are missing the trends that signal his end.

su_g@aus.social

@pattykimura
Compelling case you make, glad I read it.
@ChrisMayLA6

tadbithuman@mastodon.social

@ChrisMayLA6
I was thinking the same, but I think that citizen activism is going to push the fash down and Trump cannot do all he wants if his minions are scared.

We shall overcome!

2legged@mastodon.ie

@nikatjef So you can't identify any specific judgment, and you offer zero evidence that the courts would ignore a conviction at impeachment.

I get why you are v worried, but if you want to make a serious contribution to a discussion about the actions of a court, that needs identifiable rulings.

@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6

flisty@mstdn.social

@ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps personally (again, UK so this might look different locally), I've watched this building for decades. Bush v Gore. Gerrymandering and voter discouragement. Education decisions in red states. Militarisation of the police. Everything Mitch McConnell ever touched. Citizens United.
Self-correcting will take a heck of a lot more than voting in a Democrat (otherwise Biden would have been enough). It will take decades of work and electeds willing to make radical change.

tooden@aus.social

@Mattrog Ah, but is that in the U.S. Constitu...never mind. @ChrisMayLA6

spacelifeform@infosec.exchange

@ChrisMayLA6

It is both. The media is complicit. Trump needs to go.

peterbrown@mastodon.scot

@Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6 the difference is the constitution of Ukraine prohibits the operation of elections under martial law (war)
Whereas the US Constitution prohibits the cancellation of elections under any circumstances.

nikatjef@mastodon.acm.org

@2legged
I am referring to the Trump vs United States from 2024. Here is a discussion about it;
https://www.scu.edu/government-ethics/resources/trump-v-united-states-and-the-ethics-of-presidential-immunity

@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6

lukeryanps@toot.community

@ChrisMayLA6 The threats are real and the risks are high, but Trump is krazy. Wall St. has done well with tax cuts, but the (theoretical) interest rate caps, corporate profit caps, corporate pay caps, general uncertainty, geopolitical uncertainty, and increasing toxicity of Trump and MAGA politics mean the backlash is going to be spectacular (just from the powers that be). Protests and violence can be magnified or diminished at will by corporate media. Trump's coalition is diffuse and thinning.

nikatjef@mastodon.acm.org

@2legged
Please note that I never said the courts would ignore the conviction, only that the corrupt SCOTUS granted the president extreme authority, but the court lacks the ability to enforce their decisions and Chump has demonstrated multiple times that he will simply ignore the courts, laws, and even the constitution of the US as he chooses.

@Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6

bigtittybimbo@kolektiva.social

@ChrisMayLA6 i think @AnarchoNinaWrites was right, it wont be a civil war as that implies branches of civil government in armed struggle. More than likely it'll be some form of militarised crackdown with an insurgency resisting.

Realistically that detail is by-the-by, the angling is clear for the insurrection act, and some form of armed crackdown on civil liberties will likely follow. Perhaps a war in greenland to keep powerful members of the armed forces busy while this is ongoing, with a view to the trump dynasty fleeing to Qatar in the event things look dire.

justtoodd@nerdculture.de

@ChrisMayLA6 I'll tell you the same thing I've been telling a bunch of right wing neighbors for the past 3-5 years: no, I don't think we're facing an inevitable civil war. They're fewer now, but I still possible off-ramps.

Abspeckgeflüster – Forum für Menschen mit Gewicht(ung)

From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.