I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
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@joenash @thomasfuchs new software releases optimizing harder for 5-years-ago hardware? Longer LTS/guaranteed-update cycles? (that already works for Pixel phones as a differentiator today)
Don't get me wrong the horizon barreling towards us is terrifying, but I'm still curious about unexpected silver linings
@sara @thomasfuchs 100%! I really enjoy the permacomputing movement and efforts like PostmarketOS, so a widely-messaged shortage like this potentially bringing them more attention is definitely a cool silver lining
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If you think you need a new computer anytime in the next 3–5 years you probably should buy one right now.
@thomasfuchs ah... or other way around:
Don't buy a computer now when in 3-5 years tons and tons of powerful computers, RAM, disks and other datacenter stuff will hit the refurbished market, because the AI bubble burst in a big bang.
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If you think you need a new computer anytime in the next 3–5 years you probably should buy one right now.
@thomasfuchs I'm wondering what it will do to used PC prices.
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I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
@thomasfuchs — @parismarx did a very good series back in 2024 about this called Data Vampires, and I believe is writing a book on the topic now https://techwontsave.us/episode/241_data_vampires_going_hyperscale_episode_1
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I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
@thomasfuchs I've brought back to life a couple of old Google Pixel phones by installing LineageOS. The batteries were pretending they were dying — turns out they're totally fine.
I had good results with an old & slow 2008 Windows laptop converted to Linux. It blew me away — it's more responsive than my much newer MacBook.
Just an option if someone can't go out and buy a computer now.
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@thomasfuchs They're going to build Skynet. No one needs memory anymore after that./s
@sternentau @thomasfuchs Why the /s ? If you look through Epstein's correspondence you can get a pretty good idea of what kind of research they were doing and what they are building. Skynet would be better IMHO.
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@thomasfuchs I've brought back to life a couple of old Google Pixel phones by installing LineageOS. The batteries were pretending they were dying — turns out they're totally fine.
I had good results with an old & slow 2008 Windows laptop converted to Linux. It blew me away — it's more responsive than my much newer MacBook.
Just an option if someone can't go out and buy a computer now.
@txtx used computers and phones will massively increase in price as well as supply dries up
(So better be quick!)
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@thomasfuchs I'm wondering what it will do to used PC prices.
@foolishowl line goes up
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@thomasfuchs ah... or other way around:
Don't buy a computer now when in 3-5 years tons and tons of powerful computers, RAM, disks and other datacenter stuff will hit the refurbished market, because the AI bubble burst in a big bang.
@ij you can’t really use data center stuff for personal computing (except maybe for some turbo-nerds); and it will take a while for production of parts to ramp up again
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@txtx used computers and phones will massively increase in price as well as supply dries up
(So better be quick!)
@thomasfuchs Gotta admit, all those circular deals between Nvidia and their oligopoly friends are starting to work for them (at least until the ai scam bubble pops).
I guess they saw the chip shortage around the COVID era and are doing what's needed to replicate that everywhere they can.
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I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
@thomasfuchs This is like having rich people buying up all of the housing stock and renting it back to the rest of us.
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If you think you need a new computer anytime in the next 3–5 years you probably should buy one right now.
@thomasfuchs Isn't it already too late?
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@ij you can’t really use data center stuff for personal computing (except maybe for some turbo-nerds); and it will take a while for production of parts to ramp up again
@thomasfuchs Hey! I'm a turbo nerd!
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I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
@thomasfuchs Agreed that it will get bad. But the issue won't be that we can't afford to upgrade our computers or buy new ones. The tech industry will simply stop manufacturing hardware that gives us any computing autonomy.
We'll be presented with 'thin-clients' in various forms and we'll use them however big tech decides we should.
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I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
@thomasfuchs the free market will regulate itself, right?!
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@thomasfuchs the free market will regulate itself, right?!
@thijs lol
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@thomasfuchs Why would one ever need more than 112MB RAM?
@JoshMurray @thomasfuchs Transmeta Crusoe! Now there's a name I've not heard in a long time... a _long_ time.
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I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
@thomasfuchs yeah well...
The end game here is to force people into the cloud for everything. And then crank up prices when there's no more PC on the market suitable to do things offline. -
I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
@thomasfuchs If only we knew where a huge cache of memory chips, conveniently gathered into one location that is extremely poorly guarded and designed to be unmanned, happened to be...
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@thomasfuchs I just need a 32GB kit
I had one lined up on Marketplace for $75, but was waiting for a deposit and lost it. Then everything immediately went to shit and RAM shot up everywhere.
Probably gonna have to bite the bullet and spend $150 or $200 before prices go even stupider (for all I know, they already have).
@gordoooo_z @thomasfuchs
The prices seems to have stabilized at stores in the last 2 months for the DDR5 kits that I have looked at. Still it is very expensive and I have delayed my planned upgrade until the prices drops or I'm noticing performance loss of my current PC.200$ for a 32GB kit DDR5 is cheap compared with the prices in my country, here the prices are twice as expensive.
