I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.

@thomasfuchs I wonder if this will be the inflection point that pumps the brakes on questionable "smart" products. More *dumb* refrigerators/TVs/bbq grills in flagship lineups, etc.

@thomasfuchs Every "smart" appliance - not only "computers" - will become more expensive.
Every hosting provider (AWS, OVH, ...) will increase prices. My guess : 20-50% increase.
Every company using those - so, all of them - will be impacted

It already has started. And it's only the beginning.

https://docs.hetzner.com/general/infrastructure-and-availability/price-adjustment/

https://next.ink/225720/ovhcloud-augmente-fortement-le-prix-de-ses-vps-2026-et-ipv4/

@sara @thomasfuchs ooh very interesting possible upside. Maybe it’ll also reduce device churn, ewaste, etc. Actual commercial incentive for manufacturers to support long life?

@joenash @thomasfuchs new software releases optimizing harder for 5-years-ago hardware? Longer LTS/guaranteed-update cycles? (that already works for Pixel phones as a differentiator today)

Don't get me wrong the horizon barreling towards us is terrifying, but I'm still curious about unexpected silver linings

@sara they will still need computers for designing them, making them, shipping them and selling them so idk

@sara @thomasfuchs 100%! I really enjoy the permacomputing movement and efforts like PostmarketOS, so a widely-messaged shortage like this potentially bringing them more attention is definitely a cool silver lining

@thomasfuchs ah... or other way around:

Don't buy a computer now when in 3-5 years tons and tons of powerful computers, RAM, disks and other datacenter stuff will hit the refurbished market, because the AI bubble burst in a big bang.

@thomasfuchs I'm wondering what it will do to used PC prices.

@thomasfuchs — @parismarx did a very good series back in 2024 about this called Data Vampires, and I believe is writing a book on the topic now https://techwontsave.us/episode/241_data_vampires_going_hyperscale_episode_1

@thomasfuchs I've brought back to life a couple of old Google Pixel phones by installing LineageOS. The batteries were pretending they were dying — turns out they're totally fine.

I had good results with an old & slow 2008 Windows laptop converted to Linux. It blew me away — it's more responsive than my much newer MacBook.

Just an option if someone can't go out and buy a computer now.

@sternentau @thomasfuchs Why the /s ? If you look through Epstein's correspondence you can get a pretty good idea of what kind of research they were doing and what they are building. Skynet would be better IMHO.

@txtx used computers and phones will massively increase in price as well as supply dries up

(So better be quick!)

@foolishowl line goes up

@ij you can’t really use data center stuff for personal computing (except maybe for some turbo-nerds); and it will take a while for production of parts to ramp up again

@thomasfuchs Gotta admit, all those circular deals between Nvidia and their oligopoly friends are starting to work for them (at least until the ai scam bubble pops).

I guess they saw the chip shortage around the COVID era and are doing what's needed to replicate that everywhere they can.

@thomasfuchs This is like having rich people buying up all of the housing stock and renting it back to the rest of us.

@thomasfuchs Isn't it already too late?

@thomasfuchs Hey! I'm a turbo nerd!

@thomasfuchs Agreed that it will get bad. But the issue won't be that we can't afford to upgrade our computers or buy new ones. The tech industry will simply stop manufacturing hardware that gives us any computing autonomy.

We'll be presented with 'thin-clients' in various forms and we'll use them however big tech decides we should.

@thomasfuchs the free market will regulate itself, right?!