I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.

If you think you need a new computer anytime in the next 3–5 years you probably should buy one right now.

@thomasfuchs gamers know this.

People experimenting with 0llama know this.

The average person does not.

It is systemic.

@thomasfuchs Soon enough there’s nothing left to let vibe coded code run on.

@thomasfuchs Why would one ever need more than 112MB RAM?

@thomasfuchs
Seeing my 128gb non-ecc ddr5 vmhost like a starving man sees his friend transform into a cooked turkey leg.

@thomasfuchs I just need a 32GB kit

I had one lined up on Marketplace for $75, but was waiting for a deposit and lost it. Then everything immediately went to shit and RAM shot up everywhere.

Probably gonna have to bite the bullet and spend $150 or $200 before prices go even stupider (for all I know, they already have).

@thomasfuchs They're going to build Skynet. No one needs memory anymore after that./s

@thomasfuchs I wonder if this will be the inflection point that pumps the brakes on questionable "smart" products. More *dumb* refrigerators/TVs/bbq grills in flagship lineups, etc.

@thomasfuchs Every "smart" appliance - not only "computers" - will become more expensive.
Every hosting provider (AWS, OVH, ...) will increase prices. My guess : 20-50% increase.
Every company using those - so, all of them - will be impacted

It already has started. And it's only the beginning.

https://docs.hetzner.com/general/infrastructure-and-availability/price-adjustment/

https://next.ink/225720/ovhcloud-augmente-fortement-le-prix-de-ses-vps-2026-et-ipv4/

@sara @thomasfuchs ooh very interesting possible upside. Maybe it’ll also reduce device churn, ewaste, etc. Actual commercial incentive for manufacturers to support long life?

@joenash @thomasfuchs new software releases optimizing harder for 5-years-ago hardware? Longer LTS/guaranteed-update cycles? (that already works for Pixel phones as a differentiator today)

Don't get me wrong the horizon barreling towards us is terrifying, but I'm still curious about unexpected silver linings

@sara they will still need computers for designing them, making them, shipping them and selling them so idk

@sara @thomasfuchs 100%! I really enjoy the permacomputing movement and efforts like PostmarketOS, so a widely-messaged shortage like this potentially bringing them more attention is definitely a cool silver lining

@thomasfuchs ah... or other way around:

Don't buy a computer now when in 3-5 years tons and tons of powerful computers, RAM, disks and other datacenter stuff will hit the refurbished market, because the AI bubble burst in a big bang.

@thomasfuchs I'm wondering what it will do to used PC prices.

@thomasfuchs — @parismarx did a very good series back in 2024 about this called Data Vampires, and I believe is writing a book on the topic now https://techwontsave.us/episode/241_data_vampires_going_hyperscale_episode_1

@thomasfuchs I've brought back to life a couple of old Google Pixel phones by installing LineageOS. The batteries were pretending they were dying — turns out they're totally fine.

I had good results with an old & slow 2008 Windows laptop converted to Linux. It blew me away — it's more responsive than my much newer MacBook.

Just an option if someone can't go out and buy a computer now.

@sternentau @thomasfuchs Why the /s ? If you look through Epstein's correspondence you can get a pretty good idea of what kind of research they were doing and what they are building. Skynet would be better IMHO.

@txtx used computers and phones will massively increase in price as well as supply dries up

(So better be quick!)