From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
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@ChrisMayLA6 I read a piece some time ago saying that the second US civil war won't be armies and set-piece battles, it will be more like the Troubles in Northern Ireland, and the Irish independence fight before that: death squads at midnight, car bombs, kneecapping. Things are developing right along that trajectory at the moment. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Sorry.
@tokensane @ChrisMayLA6 Definitely not pitched battles.
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@ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps I think we will be very fortunate if there are elections this year, and too many people are still clinging to that as of things are normal
@Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps People say 'Trump can't cancel elections, it's against the law', forgetting that Trump is a terrorist, who doesn't care about the law. He'll cheat as much as anyone has ever cheated before, even if it means staging another bloody-coup.
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@Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6
This is the truth. People have to stop pretending, and to realize that between nations, there can only be force or the threat of force.
Should they so choose, there can of course be cooperation, but at the end of the day, there is a reason we call them sovereign nations.
Become a political realist, and gain the benefit of not being particularly surprised at how Trump is acting or what he is doing.
Add to that, the realization that he is a business man, and you will no longer be surprised by anything he does, and you will easily be able to predict what he will do.
@h4890 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog
One of the reasons Political Realism in International Relations (the discipline) remains attractive is exactly this issue; in the end there is always power politics... but the reasons other approaches also gained ground & continue to appeal, is that Realism is a very thin description of what actually happens from day to day in the global sphere - the most compelling approaches combine both views
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Into the unknown both hope and fear reside.
As a 3rd generation American, LGBTQ, person of color living in the very rural part of the likely bluest state, I don't experience the US as on the precipice of Civil War. However, I am not so sanguine that we won't end up there, anything is possible.
The US is a massive nation. I grew up on the farthest West state, Hawai'i, the newest state in the Union, and now live in one of the original and oldest states - Massachusetts. There are MAGA here, but they are outnumbered. Massachusetts is very blue. But because we are so geographically isolated, to survive, our local culture is a balance of self-sufficiency and interdependence both Blue and Red. Armed conflict would be an irrevocable breach of rural local identity. And because we are rural, lots of folks hunt and have guns, even Democrats. So if this devolves into armed conflict rural Blue New England won't go without a fight.
There are lots of serial flashpoints, and those get media, which is what you see overseas. But know this is Trump's standard - one flashpoint at a time, so far. Trump does not appear to have the troops, organization, discipline or ability to manage a national civil war. And no other fascist ambitious current MAGA leader has the engendered cult loyalty and charisma to trigger and win a Civil War.
I actually believe the opposite about Trump's power - I believe he peaked on July 4 2025 with his substantial budget bill destruction of significant parts of the US (w Congressional MAGA complicity) and his greatest win has actually triggered his downhill slide and he's is angry, desperate, in denial, fuminating and at his most chaotic dangerous recklessness as he tries to erase the inevitable fate that he is seeing awaits him. But time, gravity, and history are now his inescapable enemies. He will get worse, and his minions worsen, but he's no longer inevitable. You can see it in the those polls on his cratering popularity, and on the MAGA who are abandoning their Congressional seats. Corporate media here and over there are both trailing, not leading, indicators. They missed the trends that brought Trump to power, they are missing the trends that signal his end.
@pattykimura @ChrisMayLA6 I truly hope you're right, not just for your people but for world peace because one man, voted in by the stupid crayon eaters is undoing work that took years to do. The USA is a laughing stock around the world because of him and his MAGA hard of thinking cronies.
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
@ChrisMayLA6 Not on the other side, but it seems clear to me that this follows the "revolutionary" playbook of forcing crises in order to justify violent responses. In a country with millions of guns, this can only go badly.
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@ChrisMayLA6 The media distortion is very real. US will self-correct in the next election cycle, but my primary fear is that China and Russia will not let this opportunity slip away. The US/world has never been more vulnerable. I think the Taiwan and Baltic escalations will be after the US elections, like in late November or December. NATO will be sans US by then, but Europe can handle Russia.
@lukeryanps @ChrisMayLA6 this is, I fear, wishful thinking.
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@h4890 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog
One of the reasons Political Realism in International Relations (the discipline) remains attractive is exactly this issue; in the end there is always power politics... but the reasons other approaches also gained ground & continue to appeal, is that Realism is a very thin description of what actually happens from day to day in the global sphere - the most compelling approaches combine both views
@ChrisMayLA6 @h4890 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @EvelineSulman @Mattrog Yup, regardless of laws, norms, conventions etc etc, at the end of the day, it’s all down to how someone behaves and being given the go ahead to do what you like by the highest court in the land can influence how one behaves as we have seen - are seeing.
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@ChrisMayLA6 i think @AnarchoNinaWrites was right, it wont be a civil war as that implies branches of civil government in armed struggle. More than likely it'll be some form of militarised crackdown with an insurgency resisting.
Realistically that detail is by-the-by, the angling is clear for the insurrection act, and some form of armed crackdown on civil liberties will likely follow. Perhaps a war in greenland to keep powerful members of the armed forces busy while this is ongoing, with a view to the trump dynasty fleeing to Qatar in the event things look dire.
@BigTittyBimbo @ChrisMayLA6 @AnarchoNinaWrites we've always said, even 20 years ago, that the next civil war in the USA probably will not look like televized dramas of the first Civil War, gray uniforms against blue ones, but more like one-off guerilla assassinations in Walmart parking lots. I wish we'd been wrong.
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Into the unknown both hope and fear reside.
As a 3rd generation American, LGBTQ, person of color living in the very rural part of the likely bluest state, I don't experience the US as on the precipice of Civil War. However, I am not so sanguine that we won't end up there, anything is possible.
The US is a massive nation. I grew up on the farthest West state, Hawai'i, the newest state in the Union, and now live in one of the original and oldest states - Massachusetts. There are MAGA here, but they are outnumbered. Massachusetts is very blue. But because we are so geographically isolated, to survive, our local culture is a balance of self-sufficiency and interdependence both Blue and Red. Armed conflict would be an irrevocable breach of rural local identity. And because we are rural, lots of folks hunt and have guns, even Democrats. So if this devolves into armed conflict rural Blue New England won't go without a fight.
There are lots of serial flashpoints, and those get media, which is what you see overseas. But know this is Trump's standard - one flashpoint at a time, so far. Trump does not appear to have the troops, organization, discipline or ability to manage a national civil war. And no other fascist ambitious current MAGA leader has the engendered cult loyalty and charisma to trigger and win a Civil War.
I actually believe the opposite about Trump's power - I believe he peaked on July 4 2025 with his substantial budget bill destruction of significant parts of the US (w Congressional MAGA complicity) and his greatest win has actually triggered his downhill slide and he's is angry, desperate, in denial, fuminating and at his most chaotic dangerous recklessness as he tries to erase the inevitable fate that he is seeing awaits him. But time, gravity, and history are now his inescapable enemies. He will get worse, and his minions worsen, but he's no longer inevitable. You can see it in the those polls on his cratering popularity, and on the MAGA who are abandoning their Congressional seats. Corporate media here and over there are both trailing, not leading, indicators. They missed the trends that brought Trump to power, they are missing the trends that signal his end.
@pattykimura @ChrisMayLA6 Not in the US anymore, but a thought from across the water. It's a good time for civil resistance to organize at the local level. Simple things like trusted contact networks, stocking in food for strike action, getting protest & med kit ready. It can be seen as a preparation race with the junta against the day that the country goes on tilt.
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@Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps People say 'Trump can't cancel elections, it's against the law', forgetting that Trump is a terrorist, who doesn't care about the law. He'll cheat as much as anyone has ever cheated before, even if it means staging another bloody-coup.
@Morgawr @Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps
He can and he wíll!
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
The world is also facing a crisis as Trump, the #MadKing, gives away sovereign nations to favored billionaire cronies
Yakir Gabay now "owns" Gaza.
https://www.haaretz.com/gaza/2026-01-18/ty-article/.premium/the-israeli-tycoon-at-the-center-of-trumps-postwar-gaza-vision/0000019b-cfd1-dd98-a7df-fff310d60000https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjqwg7fh11g
Witkoff & Kushner now "owns" Ukraine.
https://fpif.org/an-oligarchs-guide-to-ending-the-war-in-ukraine/John Addison "owns" Venezuela
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hands-first-sale-of-swiped-oil-to-his-megadonors-company/Ron Lauder "owns" Greenland
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/15/ronald-lauder-billionaire-donor-donald-trump-ukraine-greenlandMusk owns the American people
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/1/16/billionaires-demand-more-babies-but-make-parenthood-unaffordable1/
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@ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps personally (again, UK so this might look different locally), I've watched this building for decades. Bush v Gore. Gerrymandering and voter discouragement. Education decisions in red states. Militarisation of the police. Everything Mitch McConnell ever touched. Citizens United.
Self-correcting will take a heck of a lot more than voting in a Democrat (otherwise Biden would have been enough). It will take decades of work and electeds willing to make radical change.@Flisty @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps
It is a very long running story arc. The degradation of US liberalism really started getting steam with Reagan. But really the seeds were already put in the ground with the overly advantageous end of World War II which left them without enough counter weight for the idea of exceptionalism, and from there it really just went all down hill, slow at first, but ever accelerating from the Reagan period.
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The world is also facing a crisis as Trump, the #MadKing, gives away sovereign nations to favored billionaire cronies
Yakir Gabay now "owns" Gaza.
https://www.haaretz.com/gaza/2026-01-18/ty-article/.premium/the-israeli-tycoon-at-the-center-of-trumps-postwar-gaza-vision/0000019b-cfd1-dd98-a7df-fff310d60000https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjqwg7fh11g
Witkoff & Kushner now "owns" Ukraine.
https://fpif.org/an-oligarchs-guide-to-ending-the-war-in-ukraine/John Addison "owns" Venezuela
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hands-first-sale-of-swiped-oil-to-his-megadonors-company/Ron Lauder "owns" Greenland
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/15/ronald-lauder-billionaire-donor-donald-trump-ukraine-greenlandMusk owns the American people
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/1/16/billionaires-demand-more-babies-but-make-parenthood-unaffordable1/
2/
Does Larry Ellison own the UK yet?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15474089/Billionaire-US-Labour-digital-ID-building-Oxfordshire-countryside.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/venezuela-oil-exports-shipments-af902d40
What happens to those on the outs with Trump? A target for retaliation.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-lashes-out-at-billionaire-ex-pal-with-shock-lawsuit/
https://archive.ph/ZrTYTDmitry Rybolovlev
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/russian-billionaire-four-biotech-bankruptcies-21299298.php -
From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
I'd reject the phrasing that the United States is "slipping towards civil war" - it's not something that just happens by accident or that the public is being careless about.
But yes, it certainly seems to me we might be within a few days of Donald Trump's government launching a war on most of the United States.
It was clear last year that Trump wanted Hegseth in charge of the military because he would be happy ordering them to fire on American citizens.
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
@ChrisMayLA6 Whether there's a civil war or not, the world must know that the monsters consuming us will not be satiated. They're already looking at other targets. It's the filthy rich that are enemies to the entire globe. Arm up and eat your rich now, lest you be next.
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@Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps People say 'Trump can't cancel elections, it's against the law', forgetting that Trump is a terrorist, who doesn't care about the law. He'll cheat as much as anyone has ever cheated before, even if it means staging another bloody-coup.
@Morgawr @Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps
If it's left up to #Trump, he can do anything.
So you better make sure there's absolutely no way for him to cancel the elections.
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@h4890 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog
One of the reasons Political Realism in International Relations (the discipline) remains attractive is exactly this issue; in the end there is always power politics... but the reasons other approaches also gained ground & continue to appeal, is that Realism is a very thin description of what actually happens from day to day in the global sphere - the most compelling approaches combine both views
@ChrisMayLA6 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog
Do you have any links to those combined views?
To me, an analogy is the market. Yes, we can all steal from each other, true, and that comes down to might makes right, but if we start to buy and sell, and trade with each other, both parties benefit.
This is one of the foundational ideas of libertarianism.
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
@ChrisMayLA6 Disclosure: have had a few drinks and am about to go to bed, but this topic is very important to me so I wanted to empty my brain into a response.
I think (not a historian, not a political scientist, got a degree in economics that I’ve forgotten most of, so take this with a grain of salt) that the civil war scenario isn’t accurate, at least not on its face. Unlike the first go-round there’s not a regional divide. The divide in the US currently largely follows rural vs urban - which is interesting considering the urban centers are the tax base that fund all the things the rural areas need. This is a broad generalization of course, there are rural folks who lean left and people in cities who lean right.
The current administration is focusing its terror on the areas that did not vote for it, and in my opinion it’s largely performative. Not to say that the results aren’t horrendous - they absolutely are - but I think it’s being done for theatre as opposed to policy objectives. It’s telling that the Rapist in Chief touts trying to “liberate” a state that voted for him 3 times…when it did the opposite.
That’s not meant to minimize any of this however - even at the most possible Pollyanna view of this we are experiencing at the very least a constitutional crisis. And it will get worse before it gets better, I’m afraid. And there will be suffering and death, which while always abhorrent is especially so because it is needless.
In short, I don’t think the gravity is overstated…I think the parallel is inaccurate. The geography doesn’t support a civil war (it supports general unrest I suppose, which isn’t really any better). But we have a few things going for us - the admin is growing more unpopular by the day. The urban areas it despises generate the vast majority of our GDP. The most violent and brazenly fascist parts of the admin - the immigration “enforcement” - are even becoming unpopular in part of the right wing base right now. We have a period of chaos and violence ahead of us, but it’s also an opportunity to create a new progressive era after this, which also gives me hope. That along with the number of average Minnesotans continuing to protest. And the number of people in my own state who are protesting. And the number of people who have never protested before that are protesting. There’s something about standing on the side of the road, holding a sign (or in my case a camera), seeing people of all walks of life - even those who visually I would’ve assumed were not aligned with my views - standing up with us and saying “this is bullshit, and it needs to stop.”
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
@ChrisMayLA6 The potential of a civil war has been one of the key aspects to the architects of Project 2025, think of it as the fully metastasised form of the "culture war" ongoing in the US. The core purpose is to purge what they see as liberal bastions of the country corrupting their pure ways, to make the white homogenous Christian patriarchal society they want a reality. There's also ego, bloodthirst and revenge involved but generally the idea is to punish and kill those who oppose them.
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@ChrisMayLA6 Those opposing ICE and such have not moved to violence…..yet. They have been using peaceful means like whistles, noise, recording and exposing who and where ICE are. But I think ICE are escalating, regardless. Their brutality has the backing of Noem, Homan, Millar and such. Laws and boundaries are being ignored. Republican political unease is being ignored. Trump and his administration are pushing for an autocracy/despot regime. If it goes to Civil War it will be very very bad.
@HarriettMB @ChrisMayLA6 If it does then initially it won't be a civil war, war does require both sides to be active combatants. This'll be more like a massacre.
