From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.

@ChrisMayLA6

Into the unknown both hope and fear reside.

As a 3rd generation American, LGBTQ, person of color living in the very rural part of the likely bluest state, I don't experience the US as on the precipice of Civil War. However, I am not so sanguine that we won't end up there, anything is possible.

The US is a massive nation. I grew up on the farthest West state, Hawai'i, the newest state in the Union, and now live in one of the original and oldest states - Massachusetts. There are MAGA here, but they are outnumbered. Massachusetts is very blue. But because we are so geographically isolated, to survive, our local culture is a balance of self-sufficiency and interdependence both Blue and Red. Armed conflict would be an irrevocable breach of rural local identity. And because we are rural, lots of folks hunt and have guns, even Democrats. So if this devolves into armed conflict rural Blue New England won't go without a fight.

There are lots of serial flashpoints, and those get media, which is what you see overseas. But know this is Trump's standard - one flashpoint at a time, so far. Trump does not appear to have the troops, organization, discipline or ability to manage a national civil war. And no other fascist ambitious current MAGA leader has the engendered cult loyalty and charisma to trigger and win a Civil War.

I actually believe the opposite about Trump's power - I believe he peaked on July 4 2025 with his substantial budget bill destruction of significant parts of the US (w Congressional MAGA complicity) and his greatest win has actually triggered his downhill slide and he's is angry, desperate, in denial, fuminating and at his most chaotic dangerous recklessness as he tries to erase the inevitable fate that he is seeing awaits him. But time, gravity, and history are now his inescapable enemies. He will get worse, and his minions worsen, but he's no longer inevitable. You can see it in the those polls on his cratering popularity, and on the MAGA who are abandoning their Congressional seats. Corporate media here and over there are both trailing, not leading, indicators. They missed the trends that brought Trump to power, they are missing the trends that signal his end.

@Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps People say 'Trump can't cancel elections, it's against the law', forgetting that Trump is a terrorist, who doesn't care about the law. He'll cheat as much as anyone has ever cheated before, even if it means staging another bloody-coup.

From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.

I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...

(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.

#USPol #Trump #InsurectionAct

@ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps personally (again, UK so this might look different locally), I've watched this building for decades. Bush v Gore. Gerrymandering and voter discouragement. Education decisions in red states. Militarisation of the police. Everything Mitch McConnell ever touched. Citizens United.
Self-correcting will take a heck of a lot more than voting in a Democrat (otherwise Biden would have been enough). It will take decades of work and electeds willing to make radical change.

@ChrisMayLA6

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2026/01/12/billionaire-bill-ackman-gives-10000-to-support-ice-agent-in-minneapolis-shooting/

The world is also facing a crisis as Trump, the #MadKing, gives away sovereign nations to favored billionaire cronies

Yakir Gabay now "owns" Gaza.
https://www.haaretz.com/gaza/2026-01-18/ty-article/.premium/the-israeli-tycoon-at-the-center-of-trumps-postwar-gaza-vision/0000019b-cfd1-dd98-a7df-fff310d60000

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjqwg7fh11g

Witkoff & Kushner now "owns" Ukraine.
https://fpif.org/an-oligarchs-guide-to-ending-the-war-in-ukraine/

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/04/trumps-ukraine-peace-push-was-always-a-naked-cash-grab-2-a91345

John Addison "owns" Venezuela
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hands-first-sale-of-swiped-oil-to-his-megadonors-company/

Ron Lauder "owns" Greenland
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/15/ronald-lauder-billionaire-donor-donald-trump-ukraine-greenland

Musk owns the American people
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/1/16/billionaires-demand-more-babies-but-make-parenthood-unaffordable

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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.

I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...

(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.

#USPol #Trump #InsurectionAct

From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.

I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...

(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.

#USPol #Trump #InsurectionAct

@Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps People say 'Trump can't cancel elections, it's against the law', forgetting that Trump is a terrorist, who doesn't care about the law. He'll cheat as much as anyone has ever cheated before, even if it means staging another bloody-coup.

@h4890 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog

One of the reasons Political Realism in International Relations (the discipline) remains attractive is exactly this issue; in the end there is always power politics... but the reasons other approaches also gained ground & continue to appeal, is that Realism is a very thin description of what actually happens from day to day in the global sphere - the most compelling approaches combine both views

From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.

I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...

(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.

#USPol #Trump #InsurectionAct

From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.

I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...

(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.

#USPol #Trump #InsurectionAct

@ChrisMayLA6 Those opposing ICE and such have not moved to violence…..yet. They have been using peaceful means like whistles, noise, recording and exposing who and where ICE are. But I think ICE are escalating, regardless. Their brutality has the backing of Noem, Homan, Millar and such. Laws and boundaries are being ignored. Republican political unease is being ignored. Trump and his administration are pushing for an autocracy/despot regime. If it goes to Civil War it will be very very bad.

@ChrisMayLA6 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog

Do you have any links to those combined views?

To me, an analogy is the market. Yes, we can all steal from each other, true, and that comes down to might makes right, but if we start to buy and sell, and trade with each other, both parties benefit.

This is one of the foundational ideas of libertarianism.

@ChrisMayLA6 The potential of a civil war has been one of the key aspects to the architects of Project 2025, think of it as the fully metastasised form of the "culture war" ongoing in the US. The core purpose is to purge what they see as liberal bastions of the country corrupting their pure ways, to make the white homogenous Christian patriarchal society they want a reality. There's also ego, bloodthirst and revenge involved but generally the idea is to punish and kill those who oppose them.

@ChrisMayLA6

I'd reject the phrasing that the United States is "slipping towards civil war" - it's not something that just happens by accident or that the public is being careless about.

But yes, it certainly seems to me we might be within a few days of Donald Trump's government launching a war on most of the United States.

It was clear last year that Trump wanted Hegseth in charge of the military because he would be happy ordering them to fire on American citizens.

@ChrisMayLA6 Disclosure: have had a few drinks and am about to go to bed, but this topic is very important to me so I wanted to empty my brain into a response.

I think (not a historian, not a political scientist, got a degree in economics that I’ve forgotten most of, so take this with a grain of salt) that the civil war scenario isn’t accurate, at least not on its face. Unlike the first go-round there’s not a regional divide. The divide in the US currently largely follows rural vs urban - which is interesting considering the urban centers are the tax base that fund all the things the rural areas need. This is a broad generalization of course, there are rural folks who lean left and people in cities who lean right.

The current administration is focusing its terror on the areas that did not vote for it, and in my opinion it’s largely performative. Not to say that the results aren’t horrendous - they absolutely are - but I think it’s being done for theatre as opposed to policy objectives. It’s telling that the Rapist in Chief touts trying to “liberate” a state that voted for him 3 times…when it did the opposite.

That’s not meant to minimize any of this however - even at the most possible Pollyanna view of this we are experiencing at the very least a constitutional crisis. And it will get worse before it gets better, I’m afraid. And there will be suffering and death, which while always abhorrent is especially so because it is needless.

In short, I don’t think the gravity is overstated…I think the parallel is inaccurate. The geography doesn’t support a civil war (it supports general unrest I suppose, which isn’t really any better). But we have a few things going for us - the admin is growing more unpopular by the day. The urban areas it despises generate the vast majority of our GDP. The most violent and brazenly fascist parts of the admin - the immigration “enforcement” - are even becoming unpopular in part of the right wing base right now. We have a period of chaos and violence ahead of us, but it’s also an opportunity to create a new progressive era after this, which also gives me hope. That along with the number of average Minnesotans continuing to protest. And the number of people in my own state who are protesting. And the number of people who have never protested before that are protesting. There’s something about standing on the side of the road, holding a sign (or in my case a camera), seeing people of all walks of life - even those who visually I would’ve assumed were not aligned with my views - standing up with us and saying “this is bullshit, and it needs to stop.”

@CliftonR @ChrisMayLA6

The US civil war never ended for minorities; with Project 2025, Republicans extended it to include White Americans.
Now, they are paying attention.

@ChrisMayLA6
The active violence is in a small # of cities - at one time. The active conflicts are more like rotating instigations. But the awareness, anxiety, and opposition is def spreading big time thru US.
The numbers and time do not favor the violent oppressors - and they know it. Big long run conflicts like wars or revolutions take time, skilled leadership/people, and logistics & materiel.
This won't be quick, I fear.

@SnowyCA @CliftonR

Yes, I too made that point last week (albeit in different terms)... the 'crisis' is the widening of the police brutality beyond ethnic minorities to some extent

@ChrisMayLA6 Disclosure: have had a few drinks and am about to go to bed, but this topic is very important to me so I wanted to empty my brain into a response.

I think (not a historian, not a political scientist, got a degree in economics that I’ve forgotten most of, so take this with a grain of salt) that the civil war scenario isn’t accurate, at least not on its face. Unlike the first go-round there’s not a regional divide. The divide in the US currently largely follows rural vs urban - which is interesting considering the urban centers are the tax base that fund all the things the rural areas need. This is a broad generalization of course, there are rural folks who lean left and people in cities who lean right.

The current administration is focusing its terror on the areas that did not vote for it, and in my opinion it’s largely performative. Not to say that the results aren’t horrendous - they absolutely are - but I think it’s being done for theatre as opposed to policy objectives. It’s telling that the Rapist in Chief touts trying to “liberate” a state that voted for him 3 times…when it did the opposite.

That’s not meant to minimize any of this however - even at the most possible Pollyanna view of this we are experiencing at the very least a constitutional crisis. And it will get worse before it gets better, I’m afraid. And there will be suffering and death, which while always abhorrent is especially so because it is needless.

In short, I don’t think the gravity is overstated…I think the parallel is inaccurate. The geography doesn’t support a civil war (it supports general unrest I suppose, which isn’t really any better). But we have a few things going for us - the admin is growing more unpopular by the day. The urban areas it despises generate the vast majority of our GDP. The most violent and brazenly fascist parts of the admin - the immigration “enforcement” - are even becoming unpopular in part of the right wing base right now. We have a period of chaos and violence ahead of us, but it’s also an opportunity to create a new progressive era after this, which also gives me hope. That along with the number of average Minnesotans continuing to protest. And the number of people in my own state who are protesting. And the number of people who have never protested before that are protesting. There’s something about standing on the side of the road, holding a sign (or in my case a camera), seeing people of all walks of life - even those who visually I would’ve assumed were not aligned with my views - standing up with us and saying “this is bullshit, and it needs to stop.”