From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
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@Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps People say 'Trump can't cancel elections, it's against the law', forgetting that Trump is a terrorist, who doesn't care about the law. He'll cheat as much as anyone has ever cheated before, even if it means staging another bloody-coup.
@Morgawr @Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps
If it's left up to #Trump, he can do anything.
So you better make sure there's absolutely no way for him to cancel the elections.
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@h4890 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog
One of the reasons Political Realism in International Relations (the discipline) remains attractive is exactly this issue; in the end there is always power politics... but the reasons other approaches also gained ground & continue to appeal, is that Realism is a very thin description of what actually happens from day to day in the global sphere - the most compelling approaches combine both views
@ChrisMayLA6 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog
Do you have any links to those combined views?
To me, an analogy is the market. Yes, we can all steal from each other, true, and that comes down to might makes right, but if we start to buy and sell, and trade with each other, both parties benefit.
This is one of the foundational ideas of libertarianism.
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
@ChrisMayLA6 Disclosure: have had a few drinks and am about to go to bed, but this topic is very important to me so I wanted to empty my brain into a response.
I think (not a historian, not a political scientist, got a degree in economics that I’ve forgotten most of, so take this with a grain of salt) that the civil war scenario isn’t accurate, at least not on its face. Unlike the first go-round there’s not a regional divide. The divide in the US currently largely follows rural vs urban - which is interesting considering the urban centers are the tax base that fund all the things the rural areas need. This is a broad generalization of course, there are rural folks who lean left and people in cities who lean right.
The current administration is focusing its terror on the areas that did not vote for it, and in my opinion it’s largely performative. Not to say that the results aren’t horrendous - they absolutely are - but I think it’s being done for theatre as opposed to policy objectives. It’s telling that the Rapist in Chief touts trying to “liberate” a state that voted for him 3 times…when it did the opposite.
That’s not meant to minimize any of this however - even at the most possible Pollyanna view of this we are experiencing at the very least a constitutional crisis. And it will get worse before it gets better, I’m afraid. And there will be suffering and death, which while always abhorrent is especially so because it is needless.
In short, I don’t think the gravity is overstated…I think the parallel is inaccurate. The geography doesn’t support a civil war (it supports general unrest I suppose, which isn’t really any better). But we have a few things going for us - the admin is growing more unpopular by the day. The urban areas it despises generate the vast majority of our GDP. The most violent and brazenly fascist parts of the admin - the immigration “enforcement” - are even becoming unpopular in part of the right wing base right now. We have a period of chaos and violence ahead of us, but it’s also an opportunity to create a new progressive era after this, which also gives me hope. That along with the number of average Minnesotans continuing to protest. And the number of people in my own state who are protesting. And the number of people who have never protested before that are protesting. There’s something about standing on the side of the road, holding a sign (or in my case a camera), seeing people of all walks of life - even those who visually I would’ve assumed were not aligned with my views - standing up with us and saying “this is bullshit, and it needs to stop.”
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From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
@ChrisMayLA6 The potential of a civil war has been one of the key aspects to the architects of Project 2025, think of it as the fully metastasised form of the "culture war" ongoing in the US. The core purpose is to purge what they see as liberal bastions of the country corrupting their pure ways, to make the white homogenous Christian patriarchal society they want a reality. There's also ego, bloodthirst and revenge involved but generally the idea is to punish and kill those who oppose them.
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@ChrisMayLA6 Those opposing ICE and such have not moved to violence…..yet. They have been using peaceful means like whistles, noise, recording and exposing who and where ICE are. But I think ICE are escalating, regardless. Their brutality has the backing of Noem, Homan, Millar and such. Laws and boundaries are being ignored. Republican political unease is being ignored. Trump and his administration are pushing for an autocracy/despot regime. If it goes to Civil War it will be very very bad.
@HarriettMB @ChrisMayLA6 If it does then initially it won't be a civil war, war does require both sides to be active combatants. This'll be more like a massacre.
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@ChrisMayLA6 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog
Do you have any links to those combined views?
To me, an analogy is the market. Yes, we can all steal from each other, true, and that comes down to might makes right, but if we start to buy and sell, and trade with each other, both parties benefit.
This is one of the foundational ideas of libertarianism.
@h4890 @Stevenheywood @2legged @Mschatelaine @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog
The text that often is regarded as the basis for the combination is Robert Keohane & Joseph Nye's Power & Interdependence, which although half a century old, still was on my reading lists just before I retired... it set out the agenda of a Realism tempered by non-security interactions & institutions really well - the case studies may be out of date but the logic remains good
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@ChrisMayLA6 The potential of a civil war has been one of the key aspects to the architects of Project 2025, think of it as the fully metastasised form of the "culture war" ongoing in the US. The core purpose is to purge what they see as liberal bastions of the country corrupting their pure ways, to make the white homogenous Christian patriarchal society they want a reality. There's also ego, bloodthirst and revenge involved but generally the idea is to punish and kill those who oppose them.
Yes, that's a plausible analysis that I'm starting to see articulated more & more - which does not augur well for the US
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I'd reject the phrasing that the United States is "slipping towards civil war" - it's not something that just happens by accident or that the public is being careless about.
But yes, it certainly seems to me we might be within a few days of Donald Trump's government launching a war on most of the United States.
It was clear last year that Trump wanted Hegseth in charge of the military because he would be happy ordering them to fire on American citizens.
The US civil war never ended for minorities; with Project 2025, Republicans extended it to include White Americans.
Now, they are paying attention. -
@ChrisMayLA6 Disclosure: have had a few drinks and am about to go to bed, but this topic is very important to me so I wanted to empty my brain into a response.
I think (not a historian, not a political scientist, got a degree in economics that I’ve forgotten most of, so take this with a grain of salt) that the civil war scenario isn’t accurate, at least not on its face. Unlike the first go-round there’s not a regional divide. The divide in the US currently largely follows rural vs urban - which is interesting considering the urban centers are the tax base that fund all the things the rural areas need. This is a broad generalization of course, there are rural folks who lean left and people in cities who lean right.
The current administration is focusing its terror on the areas that did not vote for it, and in my opinion it’s largely performative. Not to say that the results aren’t horrendous - they absolutely are - but I think it’s being done for theatre as opposed to policy objectives. It’s telling that the Rapist in Chief touts trying to “liberate” a state that voted for him 3 times…when it did the opposite.
That’s not meant to minimize any of this however - even at the most possible Pollyanna view of this we are experiencing at the very least a constitutional crisis. And it will get worse before it gets better, I’m afraid. And there will be suffering and death, which while always abhorrent is especially so because it is needless.
In short, I don’t think the gravity is overstated…I think the parallel is inaccurate. The geography doesn’t support a civil war (it supports general unrest I suppose, which isn’t really any better). But we have a few things going for us - the admin is growing more unpopular by the day. The urban areas it despises generate the vast majority of our GDP. The most violent and brazenly fascist parts of the admin - the immigration “enforcement” - are even becoming unpopular in part of the right wing base right now. We have a period of chaos and violence ahead of us, but it’s also an opportunity to create a new progressive era after this, which also gives me hope. That along with the number of average Minnesotans continuing to protest. And the number of people in my own state who are protesting. And the number of people who have never protested before that are protesting. There’s something about standing on the side of the road, holding a sign (or in my case a camera), seeing people of all walks of life - even those who visually I would’ve assumed were not aligned with my views - standing up with us and saying “this is bullshit, and it needs to stop.”
@kaiser_franz @ChrisMayLA6 IMO this is very good analysis. The USA is not - yet - in civil war territory, but that does not deny that things are terrible, and will remain terrible for some time.
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The US civil war never ended for minorities; with Project 2025, Republicans extended it to include White Americans.
Now, they are paying attention.Yes, I too made that point last week (albeit in different terms)... the 'crisis' is the widening of the police brutality beyond ethnic minorities to some extent
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@ChrisMayLA6
The active violence is in a small # of cities - at one time. The active conflicts are more like rotating instigations. But the awareness, anxiety, and opposition is def spreading big time thru US.
The numbers and time do not favor the violent oppressors - and they know it. Big long run conflicts like wars or revolutions take time, skilled leadership/people, and logistics & materiel.
This won't be quick, I fear.@econproph @ChrisMayLA6 What confuses me is why the people aren't defending themselves. The USA has things like the second amendment, stand your ground, castle doctrine, and more guns than people - why aren't ICE goons getting shot left right and centre?
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@ChrisMayLA6 @CliftonR
There are more ways than police brutality, to use force, to conduct a civil war, systemic methods...
When the admin targets entire blue states by threatening to, or withholding, a category of transfer payments, that includes the white population, then it's psychological and economic civil war. -
@ChrisMayLA6 Disclosure: have had a few drinks and am about to go to bed, but this topic is very important to me so I wanted to empty my brain into a response.
I think (not a historian, not a political scientist, got a degree in economics that I’ve forgotten most of, so take this with a grain of salt) that the civil war scenario isn’t accurate, at least not on its face. Unlike the first go-round there’s not a regional divide. The divide in the US currently largely follows rural vs urban - which is interesting considering the urban centers are the tax base that fund all the things the rural areas need. This is a broad generalization of course, there are rural folks who lean left and people in cities who lean right.
The current administration is focusing its terror on the areas that did not vote for it, and in my opinion it’s largely performative. Not to say that the results aren’t horrendous - they absolutely are - but I think it’s being done for theatre as opposed to policy objectives. It’s telling that the Rapist in Chief touts trying to “liberate” a state that voted for him 3 times…when it did the opposite.
That’s not meant to minimize any of this however - even at the most possible Pollyanna view of this we are experiencing at the very least a constitutional crisis. And it will get worse before it gets better, I’m afraid. And there will be suffering and death, which while always abhorrent is especially so because it is needless.
In short, I don’t think the gravity is overstated…I think the parallel is inaccurate. The geography doesn’t support a civil war (it supports general unrest I suppose, which isn’t really any better). But we have a few things going for us - the admin is growing more unpopular by the day. The urban areas it despises generate the vast majority of our GDP. The most violent and brazenly fascist parts of the admin - the immigration “enforcement” - are even becoming unpopular in part of the right wing base right now. We have a period of chaos and violence ahead of us, but it’s also an opportunity to create a new progressive era after this, which also gives me hope. That along with the number of average Minnesotans continuing to protest. And the number of people in my own state who are protesting. And the number of people who have never protested before that are protesting. There’s something about standing on the side of the road, holding a sign (or in my case a camera), seeing people of all walks of life - even those who visually I would’ve assumed were not aligned with my views - standing up with us and saying “this is bullshit, and it needs to stop.”
@kaiser_franz @ChrisMayLA6 could senior armed forces officers just refuse to what he wants. Alaskan troops are earmarked for Minneapolis though perhaps they’ go in a different direction over the Pole
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@ChrisMayLA6 If the US media is doing anything, it's downplaying such events, and Trump has telegraphed that he covets the Insurrection Act as much as he covets a Nobel Peace Prize. The younger protesting set has no direct memory of the Lunch Counter Protests that launched the Civil Rights actions of the 50s and 60s, but the advice they're getting from their elders was indeed successfully implemented back then--Never strike back, but firmly hold your ground no matter what brickbats are thrown your way. One bit of payback coming from you results in an excuse for them.
This was true back then and it remains true today.
@claralistensprechen3rd @ChrisMayLA6 Berkeley and flowers in the rifles. Still they died
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@pattykimura @ChrisMayLA6 Not in the US anymore, but a thought from across the water. It's a good time for civil resistance to organize at the local level. Simple things like trusted contact networks, stocking in food for strike action, getting protest & med kit ready. It can be seen as a preparation race with the junta against the day that the country goes on tilt.
I just watched a long but engrossing video by Will Stancil driving in a small Honda Fit doggedly filming and tailing and reporting on two ICE vehicles in Minneapolis. He is live on the phone with a centralized coordinating base where he gives constant updates on location and movement while honking his horn in repeated beeps to warn others and rip anonymity from ICE. Apparently the Resistance has separate districts covering the city with 24/7 coordinated volunteer observers in cars (over 200 drivers in each district) and on bikes and on foot (over 1000 observers in each district with whistles and phones) all following, reporting to a centralized bank that is notifying and coordinating citywide coverage to protect their city. At one point he hears someone else following ICE who reports there is a car between her and the ICE vehicles she is tailing and reports his plate and car description. He happily exclaims "That's me!" The two ICE appear to split up, and he follows the first (she warns him of an ICE tactic to try to shake him) and she says she'll stay on the second. ICE gives up trying to shake them, as the two spotters work together to tail.
They can mask, but they can't hide.
Resistance is alive, coordinated, volunteer, and growing. Resistance is NOT futile.
The next ICE target will learn from Minneapolis, which learned from Charlotte, which learned from Chicago, which learned from LA.
We're getting better at resisting. This is teaching a whole generation of patriots practical creative, clever, necessary tools for defending our democracy. Don't count us average Americans out.
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@econproph @ChrisMayLA6 What confuses me is why the people aren't defending themselves. The USA has things like the second amendment, stand your ground, castle doctrine, and more guns than people - why aren't ICE goons getting shot left right and centre?
@TimWardCam @econproph @ChrisMayLA6
because most of the triger happy gun toters, either joined ICE or are supporting them. -
@econproph @ChrisMayLA6 What confuses me is why the people aren't defending themselves. The USA has things like the second amendment, stand your ground, castle doctrine, and more guns than people - why aren't ICE goons getting shot left right and centre?
That may yet come - at the moment I imagine people are feeling out-numbered
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@HarriettMB @ChrisMayLA6 If it does then initially it won't be a civil war, war does require both sides to be active combatants. This'll be more like a massacre.
@nini @ChrisMayLA6 More guns in the USA per person than pretty much anywhere else in the world. I reckon there comes a point when people will fight back - using the abhorrent doctrine of ‘defending their castle’
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@guardeddon California will not secede until the humongous gravy train of military spending dries up. That's not a sufficient condition for a #CalExit, but it's a necessary condition.
Also, Silicon Valley is now so strong that there is probably no secession without #techbros in the driving seat.
@2legged @guardeddon @d_a_n_a @ChrisMayLA6
Trump risks the kind of economic collapse that should significantly reduce both massive military spending and silly-con valleys economic dominace. At least temporarily. -
@nini @ChrisMayLA6 More guns in the USA per person than pretty much anywhere else in the world. I reckon there comes a point when people will fight back - using the abhorrent doctrine of ‘defending their castle’
@HarriettMB @ChrisMayLA6 Depending where you're located, yes. There's a reason that ICE rolled into places that don't have a high gun ownership level, they are not going where there's a high chance they will be fired at.
