From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.

@ChrisMayLA6
The active violence is in a small # of cities - at one time. The active conflicts are more like rotating instigations. But the awareness, anxiety, and opposition is def spreading big time thru US.
The numbers and time do not favor the violent oppressors - and they know it. Big long run conflicts like wars or revolutions take time, skilled leadership/people, and logistics & materiel.
This won't be quick, I fear.

@guardeddon @ChrisMayLA6 secession attempts would cause outright civil war. Remember that the federal govt. is heavily armed.

I believe we'll see interstate agreements to do things that the federal govt. used to do. If things fall apart completely, these associations could become the basis of regional entities.

@guardeddon California will not secede until the humongous gravy train of military spending dries up. That's not a sufficient condition for a #CalExit, but it's a necessary condition.

Also, Silicon Valley is now so strong that there is probably no secession without #techbros in the driving seat.

@d_a_n_a @ChrisMayLA6

@EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6 He can’t pause elections lawfully. US has held elections during all wars including the Civil War. He can prevent people from voting by scaring them enough to stay home but even this may not be enough to end voting as courts can extend voting to counter certain issues. Trump wants you to worry.

@ChrisMayLA6 @econproph Few civil wars involve an ongoing punch up on every street. Mostly, they are localised.

@guardeddon @ChrisMayLA6 A couple of book suggestions vis a vis secession:

Peter Heller, "Burn" (2024) (Maine secedes)

Brian Hart, "Trouble No Man" (2019) (West coast post secession of a large area described as "The Preservation")

Both are grim food for thought.

@ChrisMayLA6 I feel that is exactly the case. It is terrifying, and I’d kinda hoped y final years would be a bit more peaceful

@ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps I think we will be very fortunate if there are elections this year, and too many people are still clinging to that as of things are normal

@ChrisMayLA6 From a certain historical perspective, the US Civil War never really ended, it went underground. The attitudes were cultivated and channeled into institutional racism and Jim Crow laws.

The 20th century "Confederates" (fascists) never forgave the US government for Civil Rights and equality laws. The 21st century Confederates are trying to unmake the human rights advances in order to institute a white Christian theocracy. (Blame John Calvin.)

All empires eventually fall, as hubris takes its toll.

@alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6 He owns the supreme court. He can do what he likes.

The only barriers to what he can do are what will finally tip politicians over the edge (assuming they don't wait too long and lose that power too), and at what point the country goes up in flames.

Given even the "opposition" party is basically executing on "but we're a different kind of nazi" that seems pretty grim.

@alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6 not only that but from what I understand don't individual states administer their own elections? So Trump doesn't have power over how they're held. The controls he has are things like USPS (making postal voting harder) and terrorising people from showing up. But he can't directly do anything to stop them happening.

@alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6 Amanda's Mild Takes on YouTube is very clear on this. https://youtube.com/shorts/cIHkd0YutTA
She points out in another one that even when Hawaii had martial law after Pearl Harbour, elections still happened.

@etchedpixels @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6 Yes, that he exploits his pet #SCOTUS in some way is a possibility - they may be able to find some obscure law or case and twist a decision in Trump’s favor. Trump and his evil cohorts will no doubt be scheming as we discuss this.

@Flisty @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6 I asked #ChatGPT about this and the basic answer was no, Trump can’t stop the elections without a constitutional amendment which is highly unlikely - I assume - not always wise - that ChatGPT gave accurate info - will look at Amanda’s video to see how her take compares.

@alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6 if you ask a real search engine it will give you a long list of articles by humans that agree that trump can't cancel elections

@d_a_n_a @guardeddon @ChrisMayLA6 A looser union like the European Union could be the way forward

@ChrisMayLA6 I read a piece some time ago saying that the second US civil war won't be armies and set-piece battles, it will be more like the Troubles in Northern Ireland, and the Irish independence fight before that: death squads at midnight, car bombs, kneecapping. Things are developing right along that trajectory at the moment. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Sorry.

@alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6 "lawfully" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Whether or not it is lawful, who's going to step up to stop him at this point? If there has not so far been a flash point to general civil war (I'd contend that that state exists in Minneapolis) then this might be a major candidate but it would require the General Staff to stand by their oaths and Hegseth has been culling the officers who would be likely to do that. Or else the public would have to.

@AnarchoNinaWrites @ChrisMayLA6 bollocks. Black Panthers are libs and they're already arming up.

@Flisty @alex_p_roe @EvelineSulman @Mattrog @ChrisMayLA6 I worry less that elections will be cancelled than that Republicans will create enough chaos in enough states and Mike Johnson will use that as an excuse to refuse swearing in the new Democratic House members and keep the GOP in control.