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Some back-of-the-envelope calculations: new vaccines are generally introduced to more affluent countries first, especially for diseases that aren't immediately fatal. The market for vaccines against EBV, HSV, and VZV would be in this category.
EU: 450M people
Canada: 40M
US: 350M
Australia & NZ: 30M
Without US, the market is about 40% smaller.
Moderna has shareholders. It's on the NASDAQ, stock symbol MRNA.
@brianvastag Yep! And I really want any potential vaccine to evaluate the effect on ME/CFS. Is it the pathogen that causes problems, or the immune system's response to the pathogen? Could a poorly-designed vaccine make things worse?
I'm not the right person to be explaining the perverse intersection of healthcare and capitalism. The short answer is, most large companies won't do anything that loses money. In fact, in US law they are specifically prohibited from doing things that are expected to lose money.
A vaccine manufacturer would normally apply for approval in many jurisdictions.
But for some back-of-the-envelope calculations: new vaccines are generally introduced to more affluent countries first, especially for diseases that aren't immediately fatal. The market for vaccines against EBV, HSV, and VZV would be in this category.
EU: 450M people
Canada: 40M
US: 350M
Without US, the market is AT LEAST 40% smaller. Is it still worth it do to the studies?
@EndicottAuthor Sadly, that's a more hopeful interpretation than mine: the administration is pursuing an anti-vaccine agenda, and is doing what it can to make EVERY vaccine manufacturer pack up and leave. Moderna is just the first.
The FDA decided not to even review Moderna's mRNA flu vaccines for approval, even though the studies the FDA would be reviewing were conducted the way the FDA told Moderna to do them.
Now #Moderna expects that none of its other #mRNA #vaccines will be reviewed, and has halted studies on vaccines for EBV, HSV, and shingles.
A lot of people with herpes would be angry if they found out.
A lot of people who have family members with #MS -- now thought to be caused in part by EBV -- will be livid.
You probably heard that the United States quit the World Health Organization (WHO) today.
But have you heard that California joined the WHO's Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network on its own?
I missed this article when it appeared on The Guardian last month:
US plan for $1.6m hepatitis B vaccine study in Africa called ‘highly unethical’ https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/dec/19/hepatitis-b-vaccine-study-guinea-bissau-rfk?CMP=share_btn_url
In a country where over 10% of toddlers are infected with hep B, some will receive the vaccine at birth, and some will have the vax deliberately withheld until 6 weeks. And researchers will know who's in which group.
H/t Paul Offit's newsletter