No, Trump does not have the legal authority or the practical ability to “nationalize” US elections, for all the same reasons he also didn’t when he issued an executive order a few months ago abolishing mail in voting.

@mattblaze While I agree that the full scale is huge, what would be the smallest subset that Trump needs to take control of or interfere with, to achieve his aims? Is it still in the realm of the impossible?

@mattblaze
He is also far into dementia and not connected to reality very well. These factors play a role.

@mattblaze @theklan

You obviously have expertise regarding technical aspects of US elections, but this doesn't mean that you are an expert on totalitarian regimes & how they come about.

@mattblaze it's really hard to find the balance between "I can't let this ignorance go unchallenged" and "I can't waste my life challenging every ignorant thing this man says." Am I responsibly responding to dangerous misinformation or am I being suckered into rolling around in the mud with a pig who enjoys rolling in the mud? It is so frustrating because the uncertainty just adds to the sense of hopelessness and feeds apathy.

@mattblaze He can't "nationalize" elections, for the reasons you give, but I wouldn't call it "meaningless blather" either. It fits into and reinforces what he *is* doing to disrupt elections in his favor, not by preventing them, but by intimidating voters and officials in key places. We have plenty of historic examples of voter suppression and bias in running polls, and he's already been able to shift other behavior in some states (and universities) via "orders" that shouldn't have legal force.

@mattblaze
Understood. I do not think the administration wants free & fair elections. trump stated — likely correctly — that R loss of Congressional control in the midterms wld lead to his impeachment. Authoritarians want control. They're neither efficient nor effective at delivering services — including free & fair elections — in most cases.

How to reach past the regime's limits that you mention = key. Vote and turn out the vote & use the courts as much as possible. What else?

Thx.

@mattblaze Surely some member of the USSS would take their oath to protect the constitution seriously in such a situation? Or am I a hopeless dreamer?

@mattblaze I’m more worried about people believing he CAN do these things, and disrupting the process that way with the noise and enough precincts possibly following along, or outside pressure like we started to see with counting. General public panic is the weak link, and the logical, legal explanation is a lot less interesting to entertainment media these days

@mattblaze maybe I'm missing something here, but the US only has 50 states...

@hellomiakoda @mattblaze Do you really think Trump will order the military to bomb random-ass polling places?

The question isn't whether Trump can proclaim he's above the law. It's whether he can act on it in any particular case. All the mechanism to run elections is in the several states, not in Washington; Trump can't just order obedience and expect to be followed here.

@hosford42 @mattblaze @dominykas What concrete actions can Trump take to make states obey his unconstitutional election decrees, given that all the mechanism of elections is in the states, not the federal government?

@cryptadamist @mattblaze @diasyy11 How many ICE guys would it take to do that at a majority of polling stations in every blue-majority city, let alone every blue-majority state? What impact would even an attempt to do that have on voters even in red states? Trump has a core of fascist-fanboi supporters but they're nowhere near a majority. Look at the recent special elections.

@mkilmo @mattblaze @dominykas But how many such incidents would it take to spoil elections in hundreds of districts (and tens of thousands of polling places) all over the nation?

Remember that the US federal election system is a large, highly-distributed system. A denial-of-service attack such as you describe would require orders of magnitude more resources than Trump has yet deployed on anything, for blatantly unlawful actions that many proper-military people will decline.

I don't say it's utterly impossible but it's a lot harder than the not-so-effective attempts to subdue all opposition in Minneapolis.

@cstross @theklan @blasen He does what? I was under impression that the community here was friendly and ready for polite exchange of ideas. But from this and other his threads it look like he really doesn't want interaction. And that's fine, but there is no need for rudeness and sarcasm just because somebody asks something or presents a different opinion. ‍️

@mattblaze and saying this is completely disingenuous, misleading, and ignores reality.

He can't deport people illegally. He can't send people to foreign countries to be tortured illegally. He can't rename the Kennedy center illegally.

These are not self-enforcing things. If they are saying they are going to seize control of elections by force, then guess what? They sure as fuck are going to try. And they don't CARE if they screw it up. Screwing it up is the POINT.

@mattblaze they are more than willing to storm into every election office with Gestapo thugs and guns, which they already have in Georgia.

They will make up some justification - what it is, if it's believable, doesn't matter. Their cult will go along with it no matter what. "Proving" it "doesn't work" so they must take control.

And that's that. Unless somebody actually fucking stops them (and not with court orders they just ignore,) and soon, that is what they will do.

@mattblaze Honest question:

What are the practical limits on these powers if Congress, the Supreme Court, and the entire Executive Branch is all aboard Trump's extralegal agenda?

@mattblaze Are you concerned that he will simply "make it happen," as he has with other illegal orders he's made over the last year? Apparently the Constitution and the law have no force against his will.

@cstross @theklan @mattblaze @blasen

Matt is an expert in cryptography, not in predicting what authoritarians will do, or whether they will get away with it.

Is he right that Trump has as much chance of circumventing election laws as he does changing the laws of thermodynamics? No, Trump has much better odds of doing one over the other. Will Trumo get away with it? No, likely not. But the fact that it is is something on his mind is itself a ramping of authoritarianism.

Any cryptographer on earth should be capable of seeing that very clearly.

@mattblaze reminder.

Nobody took Johnson's blabbering about "brexit", either, when his group of chuds *suggested* a non binding referendum about it. And ::motions at UK::

Law is only what people make of it, and only valid if they are willing to enforce and defend.

MAGAty trial balloons are dangerous.