No, Trump does not have the legal authority or the practical ability to “nationalize” US elections, for all the same reasons he also didn’t when he issued an executive order a few months ago abolishing mail in voting.
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@gabe For presidential elections see https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48309
@mattblaze thank you.
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@soatok that’s an extremely broad question. I’m specifically discussing Trump’s ability to nationalize elections (which aren’t run by the federal government).
@mattblaze And many of the things his administration have done are also illegal. That didn't impede him much.
"It's illegal for him to-" okay but who fucking enforces the law here?
In too many instances, the answer is, "People loyal to Trump." He has a literal cult following.
The scenario isn't broad:
- Trump, via EO, demands the government to "nationalize" elections.
- MAGA followers in key positions follow his orders, even if it's not a legal order, because that's the kind of people they are.
He doesn't need to win in 100% of districts to influence the electoral college outcome.
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@mattblaze And many of the things his administration have done are also illegal. That didn't impede him much.
"It's illegal for him to-" okay but who fucking enforces the law here?
In too many instances, the answer is, "People loyal to Trump." He has a literal cult following.
The scenario isn't broad:
- Trump, via EO, demands the government to "nationalize" elections.
- MAGA followers in key positions follow his orders, even if it's not a legal order, because that's the kind of people they are.
He doesn't need to win in 100% of districts to influence the electoral college outcome.
@soatok about what? Some laws are easier for a president to violate than others. It’s easy for a president to make unlawful arrests of immigrants, because the executive branch has broad authority to enforce immigration laws. It’s harder for a president to take over a state election administration because he doesn’t control states.
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@bmitch @mattblaze Do you think Trump can find enough troops to do that simultaneously for tens (hundreds?) of thousands of polling places all over the country, keeping the troops there all day to be sure nobody sneaks through?
I agree with you about the slide toward might makes right, both that it is happening and that it is sickening. But might is limited by available resources.
@oclsc it doesn't need to be simultaneous, and it wouldn't be every precinct. Those in red locations would still think none of this applies to them. All that's needed is to suppress the vote in enough blue precincts to flip the results in key races.
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@soatok about what? Some laws are easier for a president to violate than others. It’s easy for a president to make unlawful arrests of immigrants, because the executive branch has broad authority to enforce immigration laws. It’s harder for a president to take over a state election administration because he doesn’t control states.
@mattblaze Do I have this right?
There is no possible way for him to do illegal things here without controlling the state election administrations?
Even if most of their employees turn out to be MAGA loyalists willing to do his bidding?
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@mattblaze Do I have this right?
There is no possible way for him to do illegal things here without controlling the state election administrations?
Even if most of their employees turn out to be MAGA loyalists willing to do his bidding?
@soatok if you have trouble with the words “easier” and “harder”, I suggest you consult a dictionary.
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@soatok if you have trouble with the words “easier” and “harder”, I suggest you consult a dictionary.
@soatok anyway, you seem to be looking for an argument. This being the Internet, I’m sure you’ll have little difficulty finding one somewhere.
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@soatok if you have trouble with the words “easier” and “harder”, I suggest you consult a dictionary.
@mattblaze "Harder" is a question of will and a willingness to pay higher prices.
I contend that January 6 showed a willingness to try, so we should assume he will follow through. Your earlier post handwaves this possibility, and I wanted clarity.
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@soatok anyway, you seem to be looking for an argument. This being the Internet, I’m sure you’ll have little difficulty finding one somewhere.
@mattblaze I wasn't looking for an argument. I regard you as a highly respected security expert on the topic of election security and was curious how you'd answer this concern.
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One (very risky) thing that Trump could potentially do would be to use federal law enforcement and/or military to *disrupt* elections to prevent them from happening altogether. It’s not clear that doing this yields him any benefit, or that enough people would obey his orders to have wide impact.
This is essentially a nuclear option. The outcome is no legitimate government, and likely civil war. And if he really wants a civil war, he can start one in other ways without taking over elections.
@mattblaze I feel like this could be done with a very minimal footprint by deploying ICE in pivotal neighborhoods in swing states to suppress the vote through intimidation and delay, targeted using voter rolls (where he's gained access to them) and personal information extracted by DOGE from various federal agencies
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@mattblaze I feel like this could be done with a very minimal footprint by deploying ICE in pivotal neighborhoods in swing states to suppress the vote through intimidation and delay, targeted using voter rolls (where he's gained access to them) and personal information extracted by DOGE from various federal agencies
@mattblaze it's congruent with his recent actions, none of which have been effectively contested; it's high deniability and high impact
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@mattblaze it's congruent with his recent actions, none of which have been effectively contested; it's high deniability and high impact
@novelgazer I stand by comments. Trump has no effective ability or authority to nationalize US elections. Sounds like you agree. Great.
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@novelgazer I stand by comments. Trump has no effective ability or authority to nationalize US elections. Sounds like you agree. Great.
@mattblaze I do!
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@mattblaze but I do still worry that he has effective power to disrupt the election, nonetheless, and his constant "jokes" about it suggest it's not unlikely he'll try
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@mattblaze Do I have this right?
There is no possible way for him to do illegal things here without controlling the state election administrations?
Even if most of their employees turn out to be MAGA loyalists willing to do his bidding?
@soatok @mattblaze This is where I got a twinge. Not trying to put words in Matt's mouth but the post was clearly about nationalizing elections. the president can't - there's no mechanism (even illegal) available that would be effectively nationalize elections.
Can we imagine up scenarios where the president and his true believers *fuck with* the elections? Well, yeah, but that's not nationalization. Which is what the post was about. Which the president *cannot* do. -
@soatok @mattblaze This is where I got a twinge. Not trying to put words in Matt's mouth but the post was clearly about nationalizing elections. the president can't - there's no mechanism (even illegal) available that would be effectively nationalize elections.
Can we imagine up scenarios where the president and his true believers *fuck with* the elections? Well, yeah, but that's not nationalization. Which is what the post was about. Which the president *cannot* do.@just_one_bear Yeah but then you see shit like this and wonder if it's going to happen anyway: https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/house-speaker-welcomes-trump-call-to-take-over-elections-claims-dem-wins-appear-fraudulent/
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@mattblaze sorry if it seemed like I was trying to contradict you. I agree with everything you said, and your nuclear option brought to mind a subtler possibility
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The presidency is an extremely powerful office, but it’s not all powerful. There are limits - legal, structural, and practical - that shape what someone like Trump can and can’t do unilaterally. The fact that he can order thugish enforcement of immigration laws (something that was already almost entirely within executive control) doesn’t mean he can just unilaterally rewrite the constitution or usurp state sovereignty.
Not all abuses are equally plausible.
@mattblaze I agree. But he does things every day that we’re all assured are illegal and impossible. I can understand why people are confused.
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@just_one_bear Yeah but then you see shit like this and wonder if it's going to happen anyway: https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/house-speaker-welcomes-trump-call-to-take-over-elections-claims-dem-wins-appear-fraudulent/
@soatok @just_one_bear
also, as we saw with doge, he has no qualms about sending a group of loyalists into a formerly independent institution and declaring "we run this now". its totally possible he could hostile takeover the election admins of blue states. he's already pushing that direction with georgia.
maybe he won't but i think its a scenario blue states need to prepare for. -
It’s hard to overstate just how huge this system is, or how many moving parts are involved. And almost all of it operates at the local level, governed by state laws and local practices and tied to the structure of local government.
This is not something you can just snap your fingers and take over by fiat or force, not to mention the fact that it’s all deeply embedded in federal and state constitutional structures.
@mattblaze having worked in a presidential election at a data engineering role, while the apparatus is huge and federated, generally the end result can be influenced by narrowly targeting a small number of precincts. If they try to use force or intimidation, it will be applied at those points unfortunately.
